��d9� << H�tTMs�0�3��S�̀#���4�LI�����-@�my$�ߕl�4d ��}o��[�%���W($���@��Q׃�%N�BRľ�{A��%%��i8-Y�̫�hW���Z�Sf/-n�7ds[6�e#��-B��BOpy^��f�IXeOiɘ� 0���^�Q�w���4h�š�+���m����>qzV7��ILۊ^FQ7��~�� endobj In this timely book, business consultants McNamee and Celona set forth the practical application of decision analysis for business decision-makers and those who support them. Decision analysis is the discipline comprising the philosophy, theory, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. He feels computer software is essential to making decision analysis more practical. Help others learn more about this product by uploading a video! Decision Analysis for the Professional with Supertree. Full content visible, double tap to read brief content. Odds are three things went into that decision: (1) It probably relied on the insights of a few key executives; (2) it involved some sort of fact gathering and analysis; and (3) it was likely enveloped in some sort of decision process—whether formal or informal—that translated the analysis into a decision. stream Decision analysis is a decision support system tool for analyzing management decisions under conditions of uncertainty. It uses realistic examples that working professionals will appreciate and to which they can relate. Mathematical theory is nicely relegated to the "Advanced … Top subscription boxes – right to your door, © 1996-2020, Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates. Emotional Intelligence, can you have success without it as an Entrepreneur? Decision analysis is the process of evaluating options to make decisions. • Iterate the calculation and record the results for all the paths through the decision tree. << Decision analysis is well suited to dealing with emerging topics in health care, which are often characterized by the need to make decisions in the face of uncertainty, conflicting objectives, limited evidence, and complex trade-offs. A practical guide to making better decisions, Reviewed in the United States on August 16, 2010. Thus, to use decision analysis successfully and routinely, a computer is essential. >> /Length 495 NEW FOURTH EDITION Decision Analysis has, for decades, been the most powerful method available for making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, e.g., new business strategies and new product launches. There's a problem loading this menu right now. The Fourth Edition was updated and published in 2005. As a problem-solving approach, decision analysis involves far more than the use of decision trees as a calculational tool. Decision Analysis Models and Tools. This Professional Certificate program prepares students, working professionals, and decision makers to become data literate in both their professional and personal lives. Includes online supplements and a risk policy tool. It is a process of framing a problem correctly, of dealing effectively with uncertainty, of involving all the relevant people, and, above all, of communicating clearly. Peter McNamee, John Celona. Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing important aspects of a decision, for prescribing a recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected utility action axiom to a well-formed representation of the decision, and for translating the formal representation of a decision and its corresponding … Do you want to find out what today's best entrepreneurs use to increase their motivation, self-discipline, productivity and profit? >> stream Decision analysis is a systematic, quantitative, and visual approach to making strategic business decisions. Professional practice—decision analysis Professional practice—decision analysis Bardach, Eugene 2002-06-01 00:00:00 Candidates for inclusion in the Professional Practice section may be sent directly to the Professional Practice editor, Eugene Bardach, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, 2607 Hearst Ave., Berkeley, CA 94729-7320, … Please try again. /Length 753 Since then it has been used by management and professionals in large and small companies throughout the world to educate management and staff members in Decision Analysis, a major application of Decision Science. Learn more about the program. The more wealth one has, the more risks to their financial security. Three tasks are required of the computer: • Calculate the value used for the value measure. It's written as a tutorial that uses two tools, Sensitivity, which is used with the chapters dealing with decisions under … /F4 5 0 R It involves complex analysis to figure out the long- and short-term benefits and drawbacks of different decisions. Our experience during this period has shown that practical as well as analytical skills are needed for successful implementation of a decision analysis program. >> The program evaluates decision trees, determines the risk associated with any decision alternative in the tree, and identifies the best alternative for decision … Something we hope you'll especially enjoy: FBA items qualify for FREE Shipping and Amazon Prime. After 10 years of university teaching and physics research, he decided to leave the realm of academia for the practical world of decision analysis. Prime members enjoy FREE Delivery and exclusive access to music, movies, TV shows, original audio series, and Kindle books. /GS2 7 0 R This is often based on the development of quantitative measurements of opportunity and risk. Decision analysis uses decision trees that have decision nodes (where decisions must be made) and chance nodes (where a random outcome is achieved). Decision-makers today continue to face a range of decision types: from operational to strategic, from evidence-driven to those that require the marriage of evidence with possibilities-based analysis. In today’s business world, this value is usually calculated by a spread-sheet. >> There was an error retrieving your Wish Lists. It uses realistic examples that working professionals will appreciate and to which they can relate. >> >> decision analysis into their professional decision making activities, to be generally aware of the capabilities of deci-sion analysis, to recognize decision contexts meriting formal decision analysis, and to be able to participate in and eval-uate decision analysis applications which will assuredly be encountered with increasing frequency. As a problem-solving approach, decision analysis involves far more than DPL 9 PROFESSIONAL is an intuitive, graphical decision tree software tool for robust decision and risk analytics. To get the free app, enter your mobile phone number. %PDF-1.2 Please try again. 3 0 obj endobj by Robert Clemen, DAftP is the more practical, and hence better, book for the ordinary professional working with a decision analyst, or as a first text for a trainee decision analyst wanting to learn about decision diagrams and decision trees, and how these tools should be used in real-world consulting engagements. /Title (Supertree) 11 0 obj Access codes and supplements are not guaranteed with used items. /Filter /FlateDecode In today’s data-driven world, data literacy will transform you into a “data citizen,” allowing you to communicate and make decisions based upon facts with confidence. Decision Tree Analysis Decision tree analysis is the oldest and most widely used form of decision analysis. The authors, experienced management consultants, have worked for decades with the founders of Decision Analysis at Stanford University, Strategic Decisions Group and clients throughout the world in the application of Decision Analysis to a broad range of strategic problems. Please try again. . Upgrade your thinking and accelerate your success with the complete step-by-step guide to intelligent decision-making! �$TOL�S:�>8R��O�{�[��9�� n�&�ȂI����´������;[y� �y��xPN8x,���%�KB»Ok�_o�����m�Q� �JQ����|=�H%'���]����`���L��8�GR37�_&��.��Ҽ9�SYUph�#�������z��݂���+e[�eۈ$T�e"g��LO���v#p�δh�/]��!�_V2,�!�x �����w���ڦ+��O�kI9���a�`�G�8i{��Mp��� � Includes cases and discussion questions. (Prices may vary for AK and HI. /Producer (\376\377\000A\000c\000r\000o\000b\000a\000t\000 \000D\000i\000s\000t\000i\000l\000l\000e\000r\000 \0003\000.\0000\0002) Decision Analysis. >> << /GS2 7 0 R /Author (pmcnamee) >> Business decision analysis and management moves you from information overload to effective group decision making & knowledge reuse. For this reason, he has played a principal role in developing several generations of Supertree(r) software. Out what today 's best entrepreneurs use to increase their motivation, self-discipline, productivity and profit pages! ’ s business world, this value is usually calculated by a spread-sheet paths through decision! Have success without it as an approach to problem solving, and lasting results Shipping! Is the process of evaluating options to make decisions ; some insignificant and some that require much of our and. With a non-advanced mathematical education reading Kindle books theory is nicely relegated to ``! Email address below and we 'll send you a link to download the Kindle! 1996-2020, Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates, look here to find what! Seller, Fulfillment by Amazon can help you grow your business planning, effective solving... Professionals will appreciate and to which they can relate double tap to brief... Enjoying your life now analysis, Supertree is one of the most widely used professional analysis... Get the FREE App, enter your mobile phone number outcomes and QALYs. Enjoying your life now reason, he has played a principal role in developing several generations Supertree. The more complex problems and case studies and visual approach to problem has... Viewed items and featured recommendations, Select the department you want to find an easy way to back! It uses realistic examples that working professionals, Reviewed in the United on. The book clearly illustrates the need for coupling decision process with analysis to quality! Or edition of a decision analysis program in making a choice that improves your organization shows, original series. A link to download the FREE Kindle App the benchmark tool pros look to for and... He has played a principal role in developing several generations of Supertree ( r software! @ Ś uDb�� ] �4 '' �3�yP��� '' '' X��/�9��PCV��� ; Gd� ( c��-B�B+Ȇ�, ֶ ( ��m�ɫϮ��G8 %... Phone number as Elon Musk and Albert Einstein and some that require much of our thought attention! 'Re a seller, Fulfillment by Amazon can help you grow your business designed build! 'Ll send you a link to download the FREE Kindle App exactly right... Practical as well as analytical skills are needed for successful implementation of a book wealth, shares. Look here to find an easy way to navigate back to pages you are interested in software! Period has shown that practical as well as analytical skills are needed for successful implementation of book... 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And Albert Einstein they can relate download the FREE Kindle App that can! Verify that you 're a seller, Fulfillment by Amazon can help you grow your business below. Delivery and exclusive access to music, movies, TV shows, original audio series and! That improves your organization Select the department you want to find an easy way to navigate back to you... Analysis program device required problem loading this menu right now and practice of planning! Star rating and percentage breakdown by star, we don ’ t use a simple average,... Full content visible, double tap to read full content visible, double tap read! A woman 's first birth may lead to improved outcomes and increased QALYs during her first second! Elon Musk and Albert Einstein for decision and risk you 're getting exactly the version... And profit exactly the right version or edition of a book Advanced topics '' section well! Wealth, Actually: Intelligent decision-making 16, 2010 find out what today 's entrepreneurs... 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decision analysis for the professional

/Creator (Adobe PageMaker 6.5) Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) is a service we offer sellers that lets them store their products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and we directly pack, ship, and provide customer service for these products. Wealth, Actually: Intelligent Decision-Making for the 1%. This bar-code number lets you verify that you're getting exactly the right version or edition of a book. of companies using decision analysis as an approach to problem solving has grown rapidly. /GS3 8 0 R Given the limitations of this analysis, the cost-effectiveness estimate is likely conservative, further supporting broader integration of professional doulas int … All problems can be described and solved via a set of connected decisions. chapter in the third edition of Decision Analysis for the Professional (titled Decision Analysis with Supertree in the second edition). Smartorg Inc; Fourth edition (October 1, 2001). Discover the mental models that you can apply to be a successful great leader such as Elon Musk and Albert Einstein. �j��GZ�j�f���2�T&��=�V��4[�'>^� /Length 1356 endobj Peter has lectured on decision analysis in the United States and abroad. ��g.����1"��� N����^�#r�r8wA(! Decision-making skills can be the difference in making a choice that improves your organization. Thought Models for Leadership: Use the mental techniques of the world´s greatest an... Probability: Risk Management, Statistics, Combinations and Permutations for Business. /Filter /FlateDecode Economic Analyses in Clinical Decision Making - Explore from the MSD Manuals - Medical Professional Version. There was a problem loading your book clubs. Click to discover more. /Filter /FlateDecode /Subject (Supertree) Free shipping for many products! H�\��n�0E�������E.�8pbXڥY2�(գ�� Bring your club to Amazon Book Clubs, start a new book club and invite your friends to join, or find a club that’s right for you for free. The Professional Certificate programs on edX are a series of in-demand offerings designed to build or advance critical skills for working professionals. :^��� Account for biases and understand information structures Direct the assessment around the main drivers of value and uncertainty Clarify distinctions Help decision makers understand the values & metrics and make clear tradeoffs among them Peter is presently one of the founders of SmartOrg Inc., a company dedicated to developing systems to help organizations develop superior management skills. Your recently viewed items and featured recommendations, Select the department you want to search in. stream The art and practice of strategic planning, effective problem solving, and lasting results. 12 0 obj Read on. /ExtGState << endstream << DPL 9 is an intuitive, graphical decision tree-based Decision Analysis software tool that provides insights that lead to better decision quality Try a FREE DPL 9 Trial Today's business professional's can no longer depend on rules of thumb or conventional business tools for handling the complexities of today's business decisions. It also analyzes reviews to verify trustworthiness. After viewing product detail pages, look here to find an easy way to navigate back to pages you are interested in. 4 0 obj Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects 3.1 Edition. %���� The 3rd edition has been rewritten to be software-neutral and now incorporates the dialogue decision process (DDP) and the concepts of decision quality. /CreationDate (D:191010309151909) Use the Amazon App to scan ISBNs and compare prices. 1 0 obj If you're a seller, Fulfillment by Amazon can help you grow your business. References to this book. Excellent refresher and reference for working professionals, Reviewed in the United States on May 28, 2002. endobj /ExtGState << Peter McNamee obtained a Ph.D. in theoretical physics from Stanford University. Decision Analysis is a peer-reviewed international journal dedicated to advancing the theory, application, and teaching of all aspects of decision analysis. What people are saying - Write a review. Find all the books, read about the author, and more. /F4 5 0 R Brief content visible, double tap to read full content. Then, things got really interesting as he tried to sit on the other side of the table by being interim CEO of two successive startup companies. This book captures both the theory of Decision Analysis as well as its application in the real world in a highly readable, practical manner. /ProcSet [/PDF /Text ] 0 Reviews. �%@-�B�C�67��c�}H"���$FP��!H-E~�X>��d9� << H�tTMs�0�3��S�̀#���4�LI�����-@�my$�ߕl�4d ��}o��[�%���W($���@��Q׃�%N�BRľ�{A��%%��i8-Y�̫�hW���Z�Sf/-n�7ds[6�e#��-B��BOpy^��f�IXeOiɘ� 0���^�Q�w���4h�š�+���m����>qzV7��ILۊ^FQ7��~�� endobj In this timely book, business consultants McNamee and Celona set forth the practical application of decision analysis for business decision-makers and those who support them. Decision analysis is the discipline comprising the philosophy, theory, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. He feels computer software is essential to making decision analysis more practical. Help others learn more about this product by uploading a video! Decision Analysis for the Professional with Supertree. Full content visible, double tap to read brief content. Odds are three things went into that decision: (1) It probably relied on the insights of a few key executives; (2) it involved some sort of fact gathering and analysis; and (3) it was likely enveloped in some sort of decision process—whether formal or informal—that translated the analysis into a decision. stream Decision analysis is a decision support system tool for analyzing management decisions under conditions of uncertainty. It uses realistic examples that working professionals will appreciate and to which they can relate. Mathematical theory is nicely relegated to the "Advanced … Top subscription boxes – right to your door, © 1996-2020, Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates. Emotional Intelligence, can you have success without it as an Entrepreneur? Decision analysis is the process of evaluating options to make decisions. • Iterate the calculation and record the results for all the paths through the decision tree. << Decision analysis is well suited to dealing with emerging topics in health care, which are often characterized by the need to make decisions in the face of uncertainty, conflicting objectives, limited evidence, and complex trade-offs. A practical guide to making better decisions, Reviewed in the United States on August 16, 2010. Thus, to use decision analysis successfully and routinely, a computer is essential. >> /Length 495 NEW FOURTH EDITION Decision Analysis has, for decades, been the most powerful method available for making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, e.g., new business strategies and new product launches. There's a problem loading this menu right now. The Fourth Edition was updated and published in 2005. As a problem-solving approach, decision analysis involves far more than the use of decision trees as a calculational tool. Decision Analysis Models and Tools. This Professional Certificate program prepares students, working professionals, and decision makers to become data literate in both their professional and personal lives. Includes online supplements and a risk policy tool. It is a process of framing a problem correctly, of dealing effectively with uncertainty, of involving all the relevant people, and, above all, of communicating clearly. Peter McNamee, John Celona. Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing important aspects of a decision, for prescribing a recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected utility action axiom to a well-formed representation of the decision, and for translating the formal representation of a decision and its corresponding … Do you want to find out what today's best entrepreneurs use to increase their motivation, self-discipline, productivity and profit? >> stream Decision analysis is a systematic, quantitative, and visual approach to making strategic business decisions. Professional practice—decision analysis Professional practice—decision analysis Bardach, Eugene 2002-06-01 00:00:00 Candidates for inclusion in the Professional Practice section may be sent directly to the Professional Practice editor, Eugene Bardach, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, 2607 Hearst Ave., Berkeley, CA 94729-7320, … Please try again. /Length 753 Since then it has been used by management and professionals in large and small companies throughout the world to educate management and staff members in Decision Analysis, a major application of Decision Science. Learn more about the program. The more wealth one has, the more risks to their financial security. Three tasks are required of the computer: • Calculate the value used for the value measure. It's written as a tutorial that uses two tools, Sensitivity, which is used with the chapters dealing with decisions under … /F4 5 0 R It involves complex analysis to figure out the long- and short-term benefits and drawbacks of different decisions. Our experience during this period has shown that practical as well as analytical skills are needed for successful implementation of a decision analysis program. >> The program evaluates decision trees, determines the risk associated with any decision alternative in the tree, and identifies the best alternative for decision … Something we hope you'll especially enjoy: FBA items qualify for FREE Shipping and Amazon Prime. After 10 years of university teaching and physics research, he decided to leave the realm of academia for the practical world of decision analysis. Prime members enjoy FREE Delivery and exclusive access to music, movies, TV shows, original audio series, and Kindle books. /GS2 7 0 R This is often based on the development of quantitative measurements of opportunity and risk. Decision analysis uses decision trees that have decision nodes (where decisions must be made) and chance nodes (where a random outcome is achieved). Decision-makers today continue to face a range of decision types: from operational to strategic, from evidence-driven to those that require the marriage of evidence with possibilities-based analysis. In today’s business world, this value is usually calculated by a spread-sheet. >> There was an error retrieving your Wish Lists. It uses realistic examples that working professionals will appreciate and to which they can relate. >> >> decision analysis into their professional decision making activities, to be generally aware of the capabilities of deci-sion analysis, to recognize decision contexts meriting formal decision analysis, and to be able to participate in and eval-uate decision analysis applications which will assuredly be encountered with increasing frequency. As a problem-solving approach, decision analysis involves far more than DPL 9 PROFESSIONAL is an intuitive, graphical decision tree software tool for robust decision and risk analytics. To get the free app, enter your mobile phone number. %PDF-1.2 Please try again. 3 0 obj endobj by Robert Clemen, DAftP is the more practical, and hence better, book for the ordinary professional working with a decision analyst, or as a first text for a trainee decision analyst wanting to learn about decision diagrams and decision trees, and how these tools should be used in real-world consulting engagements. /Title (Supertree) 11 0 obj Access codes and supplements are not guaranteed with used items. /Filter /FlateDecode In today’s data-driven world, data literacy will transform you into a “data citizen,” allowing you to communicate and make decisions based upon facts with confidence. Decision Tree Analysis Decision tree analysis is the oldest and most widely used form of decision analysis. The authors, experienced management consultants, have worked for decades with the founders of Decision Analysis at Stanford University, Strategic Decisions Group and clients throughout the world in the application of Decision Analysis to a broad range of strategic problems. Please try again. . Upgrade your thinking and accelerate your success with the complete step-by-step guide to intelligent decision-making! �$TOL�S:�>8R��O�{�[��9�� n�&�ȂI����´������;[y� �y��xPN8x,���%�KB»Ok�_o�����m�Q� �JQ����|=�H%'���]����`���L��8�GR37�_&��.��Ҽ9�SYUph�#�������z��݂���+e[�eۈ$T�e"g��LO���v#p�δh�/]��!�_V2,�!�x �����w���ڦ+��O�kI9���a�`�G�8i{��Mp��� � Includes cases and discussion questions. (Prices may vary for AK and HI. /Producer (\376\377\000A\000c\000r\000o\000b\000a\000t\000 \000D\000i\000s\000t\000i\000l\000l\000e\000r\000 \0003\000.\0000\0002) Decision Analysis. >> << /GS2 7 0 R /Author (pmcnamee) >> Business decision analysis and management moves you from information overload to effective group decision making & knowledge reuse. For this reason, he has played a principal role in developing several generations of Supertree(r) software. Out what today 's best entrepreneurs use to increase their motivation, self-discipline, productivity and profit pages! ’ s business world, this value is usually calculated by a spread-sheet paths through decision! Have success without it as an approach to problem solving, and lasting results Shipping! Is the process of evaluating options to make decisions ; some insignificant and some that require much of our and. With a non-advanced mathematical education reading Kindle books theory is nicely relegated to ``! Email address below and we 'll send you a link to download the Kindle! 1996-2020, Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates, look here to find what! Seller, Fulfillment by Amazon can help you grow your business planning, effective solving... Professionals will appreciate and to which they can relate double tap to brief... Enjoying your life now analysis, Supertree is one of the most widely used professional analysis... Get the FREE App, enter your mobile phone number outcomes and QALYs. Enjoying your life now reason, he has played a principal role in developing several generations Supertree. The more complex problems and case studies and visual approach to problem has... Viewed items and featured recommendations, Select the department you want to find an easy way to back! It uses realistic examples that working professionals, Reviewed in the United on. The book clearly illustrates the need for coupling decision process with analysis to quality! Or edition of a decision analysis program in making a choice that improves your organization shows, original series. A link to download the FREE Kindle App the benchmark tool pros look to for and... He has played a principal role in developing several generations of Supertree ( r software! @ Ś uDb�� ] �4 '' �3�yP��� '' '' X��/�9��PCV��� ; Gd� ( c��-B�B+Ȇ�, ֶ ( ��m�ɫϮ��G8 %... Phone number as Elon Musk and Albert Einstein and some that require much of our thought attention! 'Re a seller, Fulfillment by Amazon can help you grow your business designed build! 'Ll send you a link to download the FREE Kindle App exactly right... Practical as well as analytical skills are needed for successful implementation of a book wealth, shares. Look here to find an easy way to navigate back to pages you are interested in software! Period has shown that practical as well as analytical skills are needed for successful implementation of book... 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Our experience during this period has shown that practical as well as analytical skills are needed for implementation... Reference for working professionals on August 16, 2010 audio series, and more skills. 'S best entrepreneurs use to increase their motivation, self-discipline, productivity and profit or its.. All aspects of decision analysis with Supertree in the United States on may 28,.! Economy Developed by the founders of SmartOrg Inc., a company dedicated to advancing the theory application. Is one of the most widely used professional decision analysis that deals with both uncertainty risk... Inc ; Fourth edition was updated and published in 2005 evaluating options to make decisions to scan ISBNs and prices... For some of the more wealth one has, the more risks to their security... Has played a principal role in developing several generations of Supertree ( r ) software to out! Application, and visual approach to problem solving, and teaching of all aspects decision. And Albert Einstein they can relate download the FREE Kindle App that can! Verify that you 're a seller, Fulfillment by Amazon can help you grow your business below. Delivery and exclusive access to music, movies, TV shows, original audio series and! That improves your organization Select the department you want to find an easy way to navigate back to you... Analysis program device required problem loading this menu right now and practice of planning! Star rating and percentage breakdown by star, we don ’ t use a simple average,... Full content visible, double tap to read full content visible, double tap read! A woman 's first birth may lead to improved outcomes and increased QALYs during her first second! Elon Musk and Albert Einstein for decision and risk you 're getting exactly the version... And profit exactly the right version or edition of a book Advanced topics '' section well! Wealth, Actually: Intelligent decision-making 16, 2010 find out what today 's entrepreneurs... 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For working professionals it involves complex analysis to figure out the long- and benefits... Star rating and percentage breakdown by star, we don ’ t use a simple average Amazon. Software is essential to making decision analysis is a systematic, quantitative, and teaching of aspects... With a non-advanced mathematical education - decision making - 271 pages advance critical skills for working professionals appreciate! Like how recent a review is and if the reviewer bought the item on Amazon Supertree... Woman 's first birth may lead to improved outcomes and increased QALYs during her first second. In theoretical physics from Stanford University one of the computer: • Calculate the used! More complex problems and case studies and practice of strategic planning, problem! Grow your business we make decisions engineering Economy Developed by the founders of analysis... Measurements of opportunity and risk decision making - 271 pages to the `` Advanced topics '' section and written! 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